Thursday 17 September 2015

Grexit or visionary (ii)

this was Posted on 

New chapter in the Greece Syriza 'event' starting on July 5th 2015.

On July 7th the Eurogroup and the European leaders scramble to meet an even bigger challenge to the Eurozone. A NO (OXI) referendum vote on sunday July 5th 2015 by the Greeks on more austerity brings a possible GREXIT closer.

The EU says that without a viable program for the Greek economy new financial aid will not come, the Greek government has to come up with a viable program. On the other hand the Greeks don't want any new help that leads to an increased debt so they haven't come up with a viable program, basically avoiding a new debt spiral. Until now both parties the EU and Greece have been acting rationally but are keeping each other prisoner.

It seems completely logical that if parties will start talking about a Greek debt relief, the Greek will come with a viable program for restructuring the economy, both go hand in hand.

In the meantime read here about post-war write-off programs of sovereign dept, including Germany's dept write-off deal after WWII in 1953. The IMF (and the American congress) acknowledges that the Greek dept is unsustainable, that it has destroyed the Greek economy and that dept relief is necessary. The IMF predicts that Greek foreign debt has to be reduced to 117% of gdp (is now 185%), which means a minimum debt reduction of 40% in order to keep it sustainable. Read here about the growing international support for Greek dept relief.

So what's next for Greece?

Changing the 'stakeholder arena'
Based on the astrological analysis of the Syriza government chart you may expect that the Syriza government will be in power for 2 more years. This government may outlive the current Dutch Mark Rutte II cabinet (possibly ends Dec 2015) and it may also outlive Angela Merkel's political career (possibly ends late 2015 - early 2016). This also means outliving the dominant influence of Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Wolfgang Schäuble in the Eurogroup.

According to the progressed chart of the Syriza government Alexis Tsipras will stay in power for 2 more years until May 2017 when the Moon enters the 12th house.
prog-2017-May
In 2016 a potential crisis within the European commission is possible (transit Saturn/12th in the EC chart).

Looking at the changes in all these astrological charts, you may expect that within 6 months time the political landscape in the EU 'stakeholder arena' will be completely different. The 'EU partner coalition' that blocks a Greek debt write-off deal may break up in 2016.
Therefore the Greek could/should pursue a political solution that materializes in the coming years. The Greek and its advocacy groups 'have to hang in there' staying on the scene anticipating and engineering a stakeholder arena that makes a political solution possible in order to overcome the current blockade for debt relief.